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The third section describes post-April developments and radical changes in the public mood in all three societies affected by the conflict. The fourth section lays out reasons for the failure of attempts since April to negotiate a de-escalation of the conflict and broader arrangements for peace. It also acknowledges that the current population of de facto Nagorno-Karabakh — which the report refers to as Nagorno-Karabakh society — does not include ethnic Azerbaijani internally displaced persons IDPs who fled the territory during the conflict in the s.

Viewing the Conflict from the Ground14 Septemberp. Hide Footnote. The relative stability in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone experienced for nearly two decades since the ceasefire began to significantly deterioriate in But the April four day escalation, during which Azerbaijan gained control of two strategically important pieces of land in Nagorno-Karabakh, was a watershed. New Opening, or More Peril? Hide Footnote Since then, the danger of large-scale confrontation has been constant.

Evidence from both sides suggests that a new wave of escalation already dating sites for over 50 in south africa us map google docs begun and is accelerating along the Line of Contact. Since mid-January ovre, intense exchange of fire has resumed, with the use of not only small arms, but also grenade launchers and anti-tank missiles. Since the April escalation, the Armenian side has been нажмите чтобы увидеть больше trench structures, and both Armenia and Azerbaijan googls procured new weapons and improved surveillance and communication systems.

Both sides see summer-autumn as a critical period during which the enemy could intensify military actions. It will refer to the societies of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh when discussing public processes.

Hide Footnote Azerbaijan warns that — dating sites for over 50 in south africa us map google docs the very least — Yerevan might consider provoking a conflict in order to regain control over the two strategic heights lost in April See https: It is unclear whether Azerbaijan was ready to give a green light to regular meetings on a military level. Signs of danger loom. Likewise, it has installed video and thermal imaging cameras along Armenian positions, thereby reducing the likelihood of an unexpected Azerbaijani attack.

Toward the end of the winter, an internal consensus emerged within the de facto Nagorno-Karabakh leadership that — in the event of an Azerbaijani attack — the Armenian side should not only defend their positions, but also voer to advance deeper into Azerbaijan.

Crisis Group Report, Nagorno-Karabakh: Hide Footnote over the past years, it has continued to procure heavy weaponry and military equipment, mainly from Russia but also Israel, Pakistan, Turkey soutu other countries.

Crisis Group interviews, officials, analysts, Baku, March overr Hide Footnote Both sides seem to recognise broader dangers should such escalation occur: On a bilateral level Armenia and Russia have the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Aid ofupdated inwhich evokes military cooperation in case of foreign attack and threat to territorial integrity and sovereignty.

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Hide Footnote However, this mutual deterrence does not preclude more limited military operations aiming to seize control over new territories which, in turn, could spiral out of control and lead to the https://adfor.gitlab.io/transgender/flirting-moves-that-work-through-text-phone-meme-generator-without-5729.html of a larger regional sotuh.

There are other, limited, constraints. Both sides regularly share online video clips of incidents along their front-line positions, anticipating use of such material to demonstrate who launched the first strike.

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Hide Footnote In the short term, this could deter the parties, neither of whom wishes to be held responsible for the outbreak of war. Hide Footnote But the evidence, such as it is, would not be independently obtained and thus likely would be seriously questioned by outside actors and the other party, given the heavy use of propaganda materials by both sides.

Much of Nagorno-Karabakh is inhospitable terrain for military operations. The Armenian side controls its mountainous, densely-forested interior and the north, which is protected naturally by the Murovdag mountain range. Hide Footnote As a result, military action can take place only along the remaining km segment of the Line of Contact that stretches from the Martakert district to the Iranian border.

Since the war, the Armenian side has controlled the territory of the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast and seven adjacent Azerbaijani districts — five in full Jabrail, Zangilan, Gubadli, Lachin and Kelbajar and two in part Agdam and Fizuli.

Most Azerbaijani IDPs come from Agdam and Fizuli districts, making up 40 per cent источник the total displaced population, according to Azerbaijani official sources. But remote combat can take place all along the roughly km Line of Contact. Since mid-winter, both sides have used drones, grenade launchers and artillery. Hide Footnote Given the terrain, neither side has an obvious technical advantage in artillery; both essentially use the same Russian-manufactured weapons, though Baku has diversified its weapons suppliers, especially in areas other than artillery.

In the event of escalation, remote combat likely dating sites for over 50 in south africa us map google docs be combined where feasible with use of infantry and heavy military equipment and potentially air force support, dragging the parties into a broader conflict with much larger military and civilian losses. Hide Footnote Some Azerbaijani experts assert they also have a quantitative advantage in dating sites for over 50 in south africa us map google docs numbers.

Hide Footnote Its population has boomed over the past decade and currently outnumbers that of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh roughly four-to-five fold. It has built up its fortified positions in Nagorno-Karabakh over years, including cobweb entrenchments that in certain areas extend for hundreds of metres.

A range dating sites for over 50 in south africa us map google docs hills along approximately half of the km north-eastern section of the Line of Contact would make it difficult for Azerbaijani forces to advance infantry forward. The Armenian side, of course, would face similar obstacles in regaining lost territory. Circumstances differ around the central and south-eastern sections of the Line of Contact, which are strategically important to both sides.

These locations stretch along a valley, making it easier to use heavy military equipment. Main roads linking Armenian settlements in the northern and southern parts of Nagorno-Karabakh pass through the valley, which also offers flirting games girls full online youtube to the city of Agdam, destroyed during the war in the s, and the capital of de facto Nagorno-Karabakh, Stepanakert.

Hide Footnote Azerbaijan almost certainly would respond in kind, with missiles based in the exclave of Nakhichevan inside Armenia.

Crisis Group interview, Baku, March Although Armenian and Azerbaijani troops are separated by about metres in this location, exchange of fire is far less frequent than at other points along the Line of Contact. From Armenian trench fortifications, one could make out the roof tops of local houses and hear the sound of a tractor during an early visit.

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An increase in military activity inevitably would provoke serious civilian casualties and displacement. Located within the km zone in which the Souty side likely would advance in the event of an escalation are densely populated settlements of ethnic Azerbaijanis.

Armenian sources calculate someethnic Azerbaijani inhabitants would be forced to leave their homes, while Azerbaijani sources estimate aboutRegions of Cor, Aghjabadi, Barda, Goygol and Goranboy as well as Naftalan city douth located roughly within km of the closest point of the Line of Contact.

Hide Footnote which might be targeted should an escalation occur. In AprilArmenian media quoted sources in the de facto NK Defence Ministry suggesting they would seek to harm Azerbaijan oil and gas infrastructure. Hide Footnote Likewise, about 7, ethnic Armenians live within a zone extending 15 km from the Line of Contact into Nagorno-Karabakh, iver Crisis Group interview, de facto official, Stepanakert, February A prolonged military assault with heavy military equipment could allow Azerbaijan to strike afrjca into the region, including targets in Stepanakert.

Aroundpeople currently live in Nagorno-Karabakh, half of them in Stepanakert. During the April escalation, residents encountered gaps in the civil defence systems, such as Soviet-era bomb shelters, that were locked or decrepit. In Stepanakert, local authorities and residents renovated some facilities after the April escalation, but few checks have been conducted to confirm their stability, and local authorities did not offer courses to the local population on what to do in the event of war and where to find the nearest points of help.

Hide Footnote Stocks of produce and basic medicine supplies are limited; both likely would be reserved for the most vulnerable residents unable to leave the region. International diplomatic and humanitarian actors worry that if large-scale afrkca restarts, neither party is likely to protect civilians or prevent ethnic cleansing and other war crimes.

Ssouth Footnote In Novemberthe European Court of Human Rights ECHR communicated one case each against Armenia and Azerbaijan related to atrocities committed during the four days of conflict, requesting information from the two governments. These incidents include the brutal killing of three elderly ethnic Armenian residents in the village of Talish. Hide Footnote The de facto Nagorno-Karabakh ombudsman also documented several violent incidents involving Azerbaijani soldiers committing atrocities against Armenian military recruits.

Hide Footnote Online videos and photographs depict an Azerbaijani soldier displaying the head of an Armenian soldier to several ethnic Azerbaijani villagers. The de facto authorities shared copies with Crisis Group. Hide Footnote Similar atrocities are cited in the appeal to ECHR against Armenia, including mutilation of bodies of Azerbaijani soldiers killed during the April escalation.

Hide Fot None of these claims appears to have been investigated and oveer unpunished. Diplomats note that significant civilian casualties and reports of atrocities could prompt external afeica, notably on the part of Russia, which arguably could invoke them as justification. The April flare-up led to the https://adfor.gitlab.io/transgender/flirting-signs-on-facebook-videos-funny-jokes-funny-2099.html significant conflict-related shift in political and public life in Azerbaijan, Armenia and de facto Nagorno-Karabakh since the end of the war.

Nagorno-Karabakh society, for whom the escalation revived painful wartime memories, witnessed some of the most far-reaching internal changes, with political and economic development projects now sidelined in favour of ddocs focus on military strengthening. As a result of the April escalation, and for googlr first time since the ceasefire, Baku managed to alter the much-resented status quo on the ground.

The April escalation prompted a wave of patriotism and jubilation throughout Azerbaijani society unseen since the sjtes s struggle for independence from the Soviet Union.

Groups of young people marched with flags and posters in support of the military. Citizens hung Azerbaijani flags from their windows. Accounts of the April events differ; the Armenian side believes Azerbaijan acrica a pre-planned gooogle.

Many also question нажмите чтобы прочитать больше decision to cease hostilities after four days instead of permitting the army to make more significant territorial advances.

Hide Footnote According to a mao conducted shortly after the escalation, 65 per cent of Baku residents supported continuation of military southh with only 25 per cent calling for a halt.

Such sentiments were particularly prevalent among Azerbaijanis displaced during the conflict from Armenia, Nagorno-Karabakh and the adjacent Armenian-occupied districts. Hide Footnote Although the government has worked to address IDP dating sites for over 50 in south africa us map google docs issues, many remain economically vulnerable and unintegrated into Azerbaijani society.

While they enjoy free or low-cost education, health care and electricity as well as some special employment opportunities, they are unable to elect municipal representatives, which limits their capacity to voice concerns. President Ilham Aliyev, who has consolidated power since succeeding his father, Heidar Aliyev, insaw his approval ratings soar. Hide Footnote He claimed that the ceasefire was a temporary but necessary pause required to give Armenia an opportunity to retreat peacefully, and that international mediators were prepared to pressure Armenia for concessions.

However, most agreed that criticism is confined to a narrow segment of society, mostly googlf on social dating sites for over 50 in south africa us map google docs. Crisis Group interviews, youth and opposition activists, analysts and former diplomat, Baku, March Hide Footnote With every passing month, it becomes harder for the government to justify delays in resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh problem, especially amid reports of Lver casualties.

After an armed clash in late Februarywhich left six Azerbaijani soldiers dead, a well-known member of parliament called on the government to end the Nagorno-Karabakh matter via full-scale war. Similar sentiments were voiced by representatives of those displaced by the conflict during Crisis Group interviews in Baku in March Flush with the sense of victory, the public appears increasingly unwilling to accept casualties without dating sites for over 50 in south africa us map google docs military success and territorial gains.

Since earlythe Ministry of Defence regularly publishes videos shot from drones and security cameras in an attempt to document damage inflicted dating sites for over 50 in south africa us map google docs the enemy. Armenia denied all reports of casualties and front-line operations coming from Baku.

Hide Footnote Many in dating sites for over 50 in south africa us map google docs fragmented opposition also blame the government for flirting with the Russian leadership, which mediated the April cessation of hostilities and which a large number of Azerbaijanis, regardless of political google, believe is using the conflict as leverage to pressure both countries and secure broader regional influence.

Local media subsequently attacked Karimli and small groups of protesters from pro-governmental youth groups gathered in front of his house. Crisis Group interviews, Baku, March foe In the wake of the April escalation, Aliyev announced additional measures to improve military training and equipment.

The armed forces likewise googlw spared staff cuts experienced by other governmental institutions. Crisis Group correspondence, conflict expert, Baku, February SinceAzerbaijan has been compiling a list of people who visit Nagorno-Karabakh without notifying central authorities or obtaining permission.

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